Table 2 Potential impacts on EU ports, airports and railways
From: The “Belt and Road Initiative”: impacts on TEN-T and on the European transport system
Infrastructure | Location | Potential impact | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|
Ports | Baltic and North Sea | Loss of up to 15% of China-related traffic. | Down |
Airports and onward “air freight” by road | EU-wide | Minor loss of traffic, but undetectable against background growth. | Down |
Ports | Mediterranean and Atlantic | No material change, but if sea loses the most urgent traffic, this may favour northern Mediterranean ports over “first landfall” ports such as Piraeus. | Redistributed |
Railways | Via Black Sea and Turkey | Potential gain of some traffic, but with less time saving than via Belarus. | Up |
Railways | Via Belarus | Potential main route for mid-value goods to northern and landlocked Europe, including Baltic States and Finland (via Rail Baltica). Onward travel to Sweden and Norway (via Baltic) and Great Britain and Ireland (via North Sea) offsets some loss of direct sea traffic. | Up |