Do carrier expectations indicate industry structure in container shipping? An econometric analysis

Journal of Shipping and Trade

Table 7 Rational expectations forwards looking fair model: GMM

Series	Constant	Trade Volume 4-Quarter Lead	Trade Volume 4-Quarter Lag	Real Price Bunker Fuel	Shocks	Adj R-Squared	F-Statistic
Full Sample N = 71
All Trades	5.101^b (2.28)	−0.016 (− 0.03)	0.687^a (1.61)	0.106^c (2.85)	−0.084 (− 0.083)	0.89	57.6^c
ETP	4.086 (1.52)	1.283^c (2.98)	−0.467 (− 1.30)	− 0.014 (− 0.23)	0.218^c (2.10)	0.35	10.0^c
WTA	4.745 (1.24)	0.128 (0.29)	0.625^b (2.19)	0.126^c (3.38)	−0.031 (− 0.34)	0.72	23.7^c
Pre-Block Exemption (WTA, N = 37)
WTA	15.361^c (4.56)	0.261 (0.59)	−0.194 (− 0.35)	0.237^b (2.22)	0.037 (0.62)	0.59	8.58^c
Post-Block Exemption (WTA, N = 25)
WTA	0.508 (0.04)	0.053 (0.04)	0.977^b (1.93)	0.067 (0.95)	−0.289 (− 1.04)	0.79	18.8^c

^aSignificant at the 10% level, ^bsignificant at the 5% level, ^csignificant at the 1% level