Table 10 Tests of model reliability.

1

22.8769

16

0.11707

2

15.1440

16

0.51412

3

19.8668

16

0.22628

H0: no autocorrelation at lag order

D_LnGDP

18.403

2

0.00010

D_LnImp

0.755

2

0.68551

D_LnExp

0.035

2

0.98250

D_LnExc

188.728

0.00000

ALL

207.9228

0.00000

1

1

1

1

.8680318 + .2828535i

.912954

.8680318 − .2828535i

.912954

.2273012 + .625078i

.665123

.2273012 − .625078i

.665123

− .5103092 + .3787514i

.635506

− .5103092 − .3787514i

.635506

− .1956455 + .2143349i

.290201

− .1956455 − .2143349i

.290201

.2189128 + .1381575i

.258863

.2189128 − .1381575i

.258863

The VECM specification imposes 2 unit moduli