Table 1 Overview of studies about modal shift potential (MSP)
Modal shift study | Country, region, corridor | Scope | Transport modes | Size MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Panteia (2016) | Corridors East and South-east (Rotterdam—Germany) | Only continental cargo which can be put in containers Year: 2014 | From road to rail and inland waterways | 48% (of transported weight) from transport cost perspective only 27% when options for cargo bundling and capacity of rail services are taken into account |
Panteia (2019) | Corridors East and South-east (Rotterdam—Germany) | Containers and bulk cargo National and international, maritime and continental cargo flows | From road to inland waterways | Segment national, maritime, containers: 437.000 TEU Segment national, continental, bulk: 372.000 TEU |
Panteia (2020a) | Corridor South (Amsterdam—Rotterdam—Belgium—France) | Containers and fossile fuels | From road to rail and inland waterways | 360.000 TEU to rail, 1.140.000 TEU to inland waterways |
TNO (2017) | Several corridors in Netherlands, specific attention for the freight railway ‘Betuweroute’ | Only containers and break bulk Year: 2014 | From road to rail | Whole Netherlands: in areas with ‘overlap’ between road and rail: 20% (of transported weight) for containers, 30% for break bulk. 2,8 mln ton can shift to ‘Betuweroute’ |
Van de Lande et al. (2018) | Netherlands | Maritime containers | From road to rail and inland waterways | 10–20% |
Visser et al. (2012) | Netherlands | International road transport by Dutch road freight companies, non-containerized cargo, over more than 300 km | From road to rail and inland waterways | 40% of transported weight in segment mentioned in column ‘Scope’ could shift to rail or inland waterways in 2009 |
Zhou et al. (2017) | United States | Year: 2040 Distance: > 300 miles Shipment size: > 10.000 tons | From road to rail | 4,1% of road freight ton-miles can be shifted to rail |
Kurtuluş and Çetin, (2020) | Turkey, corridor Denizli region—Izmir seaports | Containers | From road to rail | Doubling train frequency and reducing the train transit time by 50% is the most effective modal shift policy: the (intermodal) rail share increases from 10,6 to 29,7% |
Zimmer and Schmied (2008) | European Union | Year: 2006 | From road to rail | 4,5% transported weight by road. 19% when measured in transport performance |
Havenga and Simpson (2018) | South Africa | Year: 2013 | From road to rail | 15% of transported weight by road. 21% in terms of transport performance |
Pinchasik et al. (2020) | Norway, Sweden, Denmark | Year: 2030 | Road, rail, sea | Change in transport volume and transport performance compared to reference, depending on (mix of) policy measures taken: Road: [− 0,2%, 0,5%] tons, [− 8,3%, − 0,3%] tonkm Rail: [− 0,1%, 12,2%] tons, [− 0,4%, 47,4%] tonkm Sea: [− 0,8%, 0,2%] tons, [− 0,4%, 0,3%] tonkm |