Table 2 Illustration of the input’s shocks in the ICES- MRIO model.
Panama Canal | Suez Canal | Turkish Straits | |
|---|---|---|---|
Commodity | OilSeeds | Wheat | Other Grains |
Main Trade Partner affected in volume (origin–destination) | USA—China | North EU—MENA | Ukraine—MENA |
(1) % bilateral trade through choke point | 75.1% | 77.3% | 100% |
(2) % trade affected in choke point | 54% | 12% | 12% |
Nature of the event and duration | Extreme dry season (2016 the most recent) reduce for 6 months the transit of big carriers | Extreme winds reduce for 6 weeks transit of big carriers | Extreme weather (i.e. fog and snowstorms) worsens current congestion and delays |
Specific bilateral trade Shock (to implement in ICES): = (1) *(2) | − 40.6% | − 9.3% | − 12.0% |