Table 3 SSPs baselines narrative along selected dimensions.

Total and labor population

Med

High

Total population and total labor force

Target growth rates are based on Kc and Lutz (2017)

Income growth

Med

Low

The total factor productivity is endogenously adjusted to achieve the targeted GDP

Target growth rate of GDP are based on Dellink et al. (2017)

Yield growth

Med

Low

Primary factor productivity for land

From Wang et al. (2020) we consider their estimates for regional specific land intensity

Energy efficiency

Med

Low

Intermediate input productivity parameters for energy commodities in all production sectors are diversified between developed and developing countries

For Med, we assume an annual increase by 0.56% and 0.63% for developed and developing countries, respectively (based on IEA 2011, 2012, and Bosello & Parrado 2014). For Low, these annual increases are lowered by 20%

Fossil fuels prices

Med

Med

Fossil fuels resources are endogenously adjusted to meet price targets

For Med, we consider trends in fossil fuels prices in the period 2014–2050 from EIA (2020) and then we extend it up to 2070. For High, we assume this trend decreases by 20%

International trade openness

Med

Low

Import tariff rate for all goods

For Low, the import tariff rates for all goods are increased with respect to the base-year, following assumptions by Fujimori et al. (2017). For Med, we assume no change to base-year tax rate

Export tax for agricultural and energy goods

For Low, the export tax rates for energy goods (oil, coal, gas, oil products, and electricity) and agricultural goods are increased to represent the preference of internal consumption instead of exporting following assumptions by Fujimori et al. (2017). For Med, no change to base-year export tax rate for energy and agricultural goods is assumed